Updated on Tuesday 26 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 98220 (+500) 1662302 (+19056) 379157 (+12421) 1184925 (+6135)
United Kingdom 36996 (+121) 262547 (+1631) 1161 (+10) 224390 (+1500)
Italy 32877 (+92) 230158 (+300) 141981 (+1502) 55300 (-1294)
France 28460 (+90) 183067 (+358) 65317 (+582) 89290 (-314)
Spain 26834 (-1918) 235400 (-372) 150376 (+0) 58190 (+1546)
Brazil 23473 (+807) 374898 (+11687) 153833 (+3922) 197592 (+6958)
Belgium 9312 (+32) 57342 (+250) 15297 (+25) 32733 (+193)
Germany 8309 (+26) 180600 (+272) 161199 (+918) 11092 (-672)
Mexico 7633 (+239) 71105 (+2485) 49452 (+2473) 14020 (-227)
Iran 7451 (+34) 137724 (+2023) 107713 (+1912) 22560 (+77)
Canada 6655 (+121) 87119 (+1013) 44651 (+653) 35813 (+239)
Netherlands 5849 (+8) 45647 (+210) 174 (+0) 39624 (+202)
China 4638 (+0) 84102 (+7) 79352 (+9) 112 (-2)
Turkey 4369 (+29) 157814 (+987) 120015 (+1321) 33430 (-363)
India 4172 (+148) 144950 (+6414) 60706 (+3014) 80072 (+3252)
Sweden 4029 (+31) 33843 (+384) 4971 (+0) 24843 (+353)
Russia 3633 (+92) 353427 (+8946) 118798 (+5499) 230996 (+3355)
Peru 3629 (+173) 123979 (+4020) 50949 (+1154) 69401 (+2693)
Ecuador 3203 (+95) 37355 (+599) 18003 (+14443) 16149 (-13939)
Switzerland 1913 (+7) 30746 (+10) 28200 (+100) 633 (-97)
Ireland 1606 (-2) 24698 (+59) 21060 (+0) 2032 (+61)
Indonesia 1391 (+19) 22750 (+479) 5642 (+240) 15717 (+220)
Portugal 1330 (+14) 30788 (+165) 17822 (+273) 11636 (-122)
Romania 1205 (+20) 18283 (+213) 11630 (+231) 5448 (-38)
Pakistan 1167 (+34) 56349 (+1748) 17482 (+284) 37700 (+1430)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 341594 (+1173) 5410959 (+87441) 2152386 (+63166)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 343586 ( +2749) 5435397 ( +76328) 2202171 ( +61214)
Wed 27 May 2020 346164 ( +2578) 5509015 ( +73618) 2263197 ( +61027)
Thu 28 May 2020 348578 ( +2413) 5579840 ( +70824) 2323819 ( +60622)
Fri 29 May 2020 350832 ( +2254) 5647809 ( +67969) 2383822 ( +60003)
Sat 30 May 2020 352934 ( +2102) 5712884 ( +65075) 2442998 ( +59176)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 4638 (+0) 84102 (+7) 79352 (+9)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84059 ( +1) 78217 ( +0)
Wed 27 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84060 ( +1) 78217 ( +0)
Thu 28 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84060 ( +0) 78217 ( +0)
Fri 29 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84060 ( +0) 78217 ( +0)
Sat 30 May 2020 4637 ( +0) 84061 ( +0) 78217 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 26834 (-1918) 235400 (-372) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 28048 ( +32) 231426 ( +106) 152506 ( +395)
Wed 27 May 2020 28077 ( +29) 231521 ( +95) 152856 ( +350)
Thu 28 May 2020 28103 ( +26) 231606 ( +85) 153166 ( +310)
Fri 29 May 2020 28126 ( +23) 231682 ( +76) 153440 ( +274)
Sat 30 May 2020 28147 ( +21) 231750 ( +68) 153682 ( +242)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 32877 (+92) 230158 (+300) 141981 (+1502)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 32579 ( +54) 228263 ( +232) 143341 ( +1798)
Wed 27 May 2020 32628 ( +49) 228474 ( +211) 145059 ( +1719)
Thu 28 May 2020 32673 ( +45) 228667 ( +192) 146700 ( +1641)
Fri 29 May 2020 32714 ( +41) 228841 ( +175) 148266 ( +1565)
Sat 30 May 2020 32751 ( +37) 229000 ( +159) 149756 ( +1491)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 36996 (+121) 262547 (+1631) 1161 (+10)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 36863 ( +145) 256207 ( +1087) 1455 ( +43)
Wed 27 May 2020 36995 ( +132) 257207 ( +1000) 1499 ( +44)
Thu 28 May 2020 37115 ( +120) 258128 ( +920) 1544 ( +45)
Fri 29 May 2020 37223 ( +108) 258974 ( +846) 1591 ( +47)
Sat 30 May 2020 37321 ( +98) 259752 ( +778) 1639 ( +48)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 98220 (+500) 1662302 (+19056) 379157 (+12421)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 98323 ( +643) 1648555 ( +15279) 373984 ( +10241)
Wed 27 May 2020 98912 ( +590) 1663348 ( +14793) 384256 ( +10273)
Thu 28 May 2020 99452 ( +539) 1677665 ( +14317) 394554 ( +10297)
Fri 29 May 2020 99944 ( +492) 1691515 ( +13850) 404868 ( +10314)
Sat 30 May 2020 100393 ( +449) 1704908 ( +13393) 415192 ( +10324)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 28460 (+90) 183067 (+358) 65317 (+582)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 28421 ( +47) 180867 ( +42) 64760 ( +245)
Wed 27 May 2020 28463 ( +42) 180904 ( +37) 64984 ( +224)
Thu 28 May 2020 28501 ( +38) 180937 ( +32) 65189 ( +205)
Fri 29 May 2020 28535 ( +34) 180965 ( +28) 65376 ( +187)
Sat 30 May 2020 28566 ( +31) 180990 ( +25) 65546 ( +170)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 8309 (+26) 180600 (+272) 161199 (+918)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 8248 ( +15) 178873 ( +167) 159715 ( +366)
Wed 27 May 2020 8261 ( +14) 179024 ( +151) 160043 ( +328)
Thu 28 May 2020 8273 ( +12) 179161 ( +137) 160336 ( +293)
Fri 29 May 2020 8284 ( +11) 179285 ( +124) 160598 ( +262)
Sat 30 May 2020 8294 ( +10) 179397 ( +112) 160831 ( +234)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 5849 (+8) 45647 (+210) 174 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 5812 ( +8) 44624 ( +35) nan ( +nan)
Wed 27 May 2020 5819 ( +7) 44655 ( +31) nan ( +nan)
Thu 28 May 2020 5825 ( +6) 44683 ( +28) nan ( +nan)
Fri 29 May 2020 5831 ( +6) 44708 ( +25) nan ( +nan)
Sat 30 May 2020 5836 ( +5) 44731 ( +22) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 9312 (+32) 57342 (+250) 15297 (+25)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 9295 ( +16) 55257 ( +44) 15207 ( +47)
Wed 27 May 2020 9309 ( +14) 55297 ( +39) 15249 ( +42)
Thu 28 May 2020 9322 ( +13) 55332 ( +35) 15288 ( +38)
Fri 29 May 2020 9333 ( +11) 55363 ( +31) 15322 ( +35)
Sat 30 May 2020 9343 ( +10) 55391 ( +28) 15354 ( +31)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 4029 (+31) 33843 (+384) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 4035 ( +33) 34172 ( +379) 5055 ( +0)
Wed 27 May 2020 4067 ( +31) 34534 ( +361) 5055 ( +0)
Thu 28 May 2020 4096 ( +30) 34877 ( +343) 5055 ( +0)
Fri 29 May 2020 4125 ( +28) 35203 ( +326) 5055 ( +0)
Sat 30 May 2020 4152 ( +27) 35512 ( +309) 5055 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 1007 (+11) 21631 (+305) 9276 (+82)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 1013 ( +8) 21800 ( +304) 9226 ( +136)
Wed 27 May 2020 1021 ( +8) 22092 ( +292) 9352 ( +126)
Thu 28 May 2020 1029 ( +8) 22371 ( +279) 9468 ( +116)
Fri 29 May 2020 1036 ( +7) 22638 ( +267) 9575 ( +107)
Sat 30 May 2020 1043 ( +7) 22892 ( +254) 9672 ( +98)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 1913 (+7) 30746 (+10) 28200 (+100)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 1897 ( +1) 30441 ( +4) 28103 ( +53)
Wed 27 May 2020 1898 ( +1) 30445 ( +4) 28152 ( +49)
Thu 28 May 2020 1898 ( +1) 30449 ( +4) 28196 ( +45)
Fri 29 May 2020 1899 ( +1) 30452 ( +3) 28238 ( +41)
Sat 30 May 2020 1900 ( +1) 30455 ( +3) 28276 ( +38)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 23473 (+807) 374898 (+11687) 153833 (+3922)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 24209 ( +834) 396146 ( +18307) 170760 ( +10392)
Wed 27 May 2020 25029 ( +820) 414772 ( +18627) 181826 ( +11066)
Thu 28 May 2020 25832 ( +803) 433672 ( +18900) 193609 ( +11783)
Fri 29 May 2020 26616 ( +784) 452795 ( +19123) 206156 ( +12547)
Sat 30 May 2020 27378 ( +762) 472089 ( +19294) 219516 ( +13360)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 25 May 2020 7451 (+34) 137724 (+2023) 107713 (+1912)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 26 May 2020 7341 ( +25) 132231 ( +427) 99476 ( +326)
Wed 27 May 2020 7365 ( +23) 132611 ( +379) 99776 ( +301)
Thu 28 May 2020 7386 ( +22) 132955 ( +345) 100054 ( +278)
Fri 29 May 2020 7406 ( +20) 133273 ( +318) 100310 ( +256)
Sat 30 May 2020 7425 ( +19) 133569 ( +296) 100546 ( +236)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.